It’s been almost a month since the last entry so an update is well overdue.

In poker I was hoping to finish the year with a bang but instead it’s just fizzling out. The plan was to play 250k hands and considering my win-rate over the last six months I felt winning $30k from the tables was very possible. Instead I’ve played a quarter of the hands I was hoping to and won less than a tenth of $30k. Things started out ok but it’s all gone wrong in the last 60k hands and at the moment I am incapable of beating the $200NL games. With enough study and hard work I’m sure it will turn around but it’s frustrating to go from dominating to mediocre in such a short period of time. I’m not even sure what I’ve started doing wrong, all I know is my red-line is terrible and until it improves the results won’t change. I had a similar problem back in the Summer and came back an even better player because of it so hopefully I can do the same this time.

Therefore I’ve given up on the target of reaching 600k VPP and instead will focus on getting back to being a winning player. I wish I’d done this sooner rather than waste the last week pointlessly grinding but at least I’m on the right track now. I’m not sure what I need to do yet so I’ll try a few different things and see if anything works. Hopefully I’ll be back to my best before the New Year so I can get stuck into the chase for SNE in 2010 as soon as possible.

Despite the poor ending 2009 has been something of a breakout year for me in poker and I’m happy with the way things have turned out. Hopefully I’ll be able to build on it and achieve even greater results next year.

I’ll finish with a link to something I heard about on the radio a while back.

Have a good Christmas!

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VPP Progress: 470,000
ACCA Progress: 13/16 Chapters (Book 1 of 3)

My first week of “full-time” poker went very well. I didn’t manage as many hours as I would like (~30k hands) but the results were excellent, including some sessions at $400NL and $600NL. It’s not possible to play many sessions of MSNL just using normal tables so I decided to give fast tables a proper try and it was easier than I expected to adapt, so I should be able to put in more sessions at this level in the near future. As 800k VPP is out of reach I’m just going to aim for a minimum of 600k VPP and probably finish somewhere between 600-650k VPP. I’ll also be looking to catch up with training videos and work harder on improving my game.

I’ve fallen way behind with exam revision and I’m going to have to work hard for the next three weeks if I’m going to pass. I started off ok but then stuff happened, I stopped doing revision and Monday was the first time I’d done any for over a month. The plan is now to do as much as possible during this week and not play poker until the weekend. I’ll then evaluate how much work I have left to do and plan the next two weeks accordingly. It’s difficult to motivate myself to study but each day it gets easier and I’m confident I can pick up the pace.

Apart from sports the only TV I’m watching at the moment is FlashForward. It got billed as the “new Lost” which I think is a bit unfair as (deliberately or not) it’s turning out not to be a serious show and instead just switch-your-brain-off type of stuff. That suits me fine but for those who haven’t seen it and are hoping for Lost II then I think you would be disappointed.

In the NFL the Ravens yet again lost a game they should have won, it’s incredible to think that by cutting out last-minute simple errors (vs Bengals, Vikings and now Colts) we could be 8-2 instead of 5-5. There is still an outside chance of the play-offs but we’ll probably have to win all our remaining games, including two against the Steelers. But with the way the team has played this season it may be possible, we’ll have to see.

Also last week in the Patriots/Colts game Belichick made a decision that caused a lot of post-match debate. The situation was the Patriots had 4th and 2 on their own 28, there was 2:08 on the clock and leading by six points. The conventional wisdom here is to punt yet Belichick made the decision to go for it. The Patriots failed to convert the 4th down, the Colts scored a touchdown from their excellent field position and a lot of ex-pros slaughtered Belichick for being a “crazy gambler”. However the maths says going for it is correct, and considering the opposing QB was Manning (who had already drove up the field twice in the 4th quarter) it made even more sense. For most poker players this debate is very familiar and I consider myself fortunate that, thanks to poker, I have a better understanding of results-orientated thinking and am at least open to the possibility of conventional strategy being incorrect. For those who are interested in further reading on this subject, here is an ESPN article from 2007 and a more recent article.

It’s been a long time since the last update so I have a lot to get through. I’ll make this a poker blog and then do another one in a couple of days.

I barely played any poker at the start of this month and lost a bit. It’s on my old database so I can’t be bothered to look it up but I played about 15k hands for -$300 or so. I didn’t play at all from the 8th to the 13th as I had the distraction of leaving my job and felt it was a good time to have a break from poker. It felt great not rushing to play poker as soon as I came home, and having the chance to do some more relaxing stuff and not think about playing poker made me realise how poker adds stress to my life. I’m not trying to say it stresses me out because it doesn’t, it just made me realise how it felt to properly switch off from poker, if that makes sense.

Anyway after the break I had computer issues at the weekend so my first proper day of playing as a “pro” was Sunday when I used Bas’ computer. I did very well and made a nice amount, both at $200NL and $400NL. Monday and Tuesday went less well, at the lowest point I was -$2.5k but I kept going and after yesterday I’m now up over the last three days. There was some especially tough sessions Tuesday when it felt like I was getting outplayed - every c-bet was raised, every time I called I missed or got barrelled off a mediocre hand, and the few times I had a hand people were folding. It’s always tempting to make adjustments when this happens but with experience I’ve learnt this can happen and you just have to be patient and keep playing your normal game. And sure enough it did turn around and I had a decent day in the end.

I’ve also got around to watching the WSOP ME final table coverage, I don’t watch much poker on telly but occasionally I’ll watch something like this. When I’m playing poker my thought processes are more like a machine than a human, I’m processing all this information and then using my knowledge and experience to come to logical decisions. I enjoy thinking about poker in that way but it’s also refreshing to switch off for an hour and enjoy poker on a more superficial level. Even though deep down I know a lot of what is happening is just glorified coinflips, or that when Moon makes the huge c/r and folds with KQ he’s making a terrible play, the characters on show and the way it’s presented just makes poker seem fun. It makes it seem like a card game rather than the mathematical process it actually is.

Next blog will be in a couple of days.

VPP Progress: 437,367
ACCA Progress: 1/2 book done

I’ve been feeling lethargic so haven’t achieved much this week. I’ve only played a couple thousand hands of poker, done none of my ACCA books and done none of the other stuff I’ve been meaning to do. Instead I’ve just been sleeping and listening to podcasts, which is ok but I’d rather be feeling active and motivated to get stuff done. I’ve done a bit better today (I’m writing this!) so hopefully I’ll be ready to grind at the weekend.

In the end poker has turned out fine this month. I started off on a downswing but after 40k hands was back to even and after 45k more hands everything is good. I hope to play another 15k hands in the next two days to complete my third successive 100k hand month, below my target but all things considered I’ll take it. With two more months left I hope to step up the volume, continue winning at a good rate and end the year strongly. Due to a change of circumstances 600k VPP will now be a cakewalk so I’m not sure what my target should be, I’ll see how it goes over the next few weeks and then decide.

The above change of circumstances is that on Friday 13th I’ll be leaving my job. It was my first job out of college five years ago and when I handed in my notice on Monday I felt sad, but a few days on and I’m feeling positive about the future. In the short-term I don’t plan to get another job as I want to focus on passing my exams and playing poker, it definitely won’t be a doss though and I’ve already planned a daily routine to give myself some structure. I also plan to keep in regular contact with my friends from work and hopefully see them outside of work more than I do currently. In the longer-term I’ll probably look into getting back into employment, to get back “on the grid” and to keep my skills current. However I’ll most likely look for temp or part-time work as with my current situation I think this would provide a better lifestyle balance. For now though I just want to focus on the next two months rather than think too far ahead.

Nothing more to add for now, hope you’ve all had a decent month and roll on November.

VPP Progress: 426,600
ACCA Progress: 1/2 book done

It’s been so long since the last blog post that even JP has managed two updates in between! I will try to post an update once a week going forward.

We’ll start with poker. I started off with some bad sessions at mid-stakes and then running bad at $200NL, plus with other issues I didn’t manage much volume. Recently I’ve managed to step it up a bit, I put in decent volume over the weekend and am now comfortably up for the month. I plan to play another 50-60k hands by the end of the month and hopefully continue to have success at the tables.

In my last blog entry I mentioned a major training site contacted me regarding the possibility of becoming a coach for them. It was a great honour and I was very flattered to be approached, but in the end I’ve decided to turn it down. I know it’s a cliche but it was a very difficult decision and I changed my mind several times over the weeks I spent thinking about it. In the end I decided that, at this moment in time, the costs outweighed the benefits, and I might re-consider it in the future. It feels like I made the right decision and hopefully when my future self looks back he will agree with me. Many thanks to everyone who gave advice, it was very helpful and even if I didn’t directly respond to your post I still took it on board.

I went shopping for sweets recently and decided I wished to purchase some liquorice allsorts. There are two options at the local supermarket - Bassetts or Sainsburys own brand. Although with some items there is little difference, I’m sure anyone who has tried both brands would agree with me that Bassetts produce much better liqourice allsorts. HOWEVER (and this is the exciting part of the story). Although the size of the bags are similar, Bassetts cost £1.25 while Sainsburys cost 62p. On top of that, Sainsburys are currently BOGOF, which for those who can’t do pot odds makes the own brand ones about a quarter of the price (I told you this was exciting!). So I had a big dilemma - are the Bassetts sweets four times tastier than own brand? Which did I end up purchasing? Find out next week!

VPP Progress: 396,598
ACCA Progress: 1/2 book done

October 2009 is turning out to be the worst month for a long time and we are only two and a half days in.

Firstly we will start with poker. After a fantastic September I suspected this month would be a struggle and it looks like I was correct. I knew the right thing to do would be to avoid mid-stakes but I foolishly ignored this, have paid the price and am angry with myself for doing it. Although I will not be playing a single more hand above $200NL this month the damage has already been done, my rhythm has been disrupted and the few sessions I’ve put in at $200NL have gone badly. I don’t think I was playing well at the end of last month anyway so taking a few days off to reset before attempting to climb out of this hole is probably a good idea.

I’ve flip-flopped a lot on the mid-stakes issue recently. One moment I think I have the ability to beat it and then the next I feel like I’m being crushed. Once I’m back on the winning track and have sorted out the other problems I currently have then I will probably try again. I think when I’m on the top of my game I can beat the game, it’s when I’m below my best or the games are super-tough that I’m struggling. Overall over a small sample I am a decent winner so as long as I’m strict with only playing when I feel good then hopefully I can do it.

Here are some of the hands I played recently, if you want to comment on them feel free. Some of them are coolers, some of them are spew.

Hand 1 - Gay river spot, villain is a fish (obviously) but he can have a lot of hands that beat me and it’s difficult for him to be value raising worse. I paid it off just because my betting on all streets was small and fish do retarded stuff.

Hand 2 - I think this is pretty standard, I prefer bet/folding the turn as he often has decent equity in the pot and I don’t expect him to c/r bluff me.

Hand 3 - Villain started making fun of me in chat after this for “spewing” but I don’t think there is another way to play this.

Hand 4 - All I can say is eh eh.

Hand 5 - Villain was a fish, had a high 3-bet % but small sample so I should just fold pre-flop. Once I flop a pair I just don’t think I can get away, really wanted to fold turn at the time though.

Hand 6 - I should have folded the turn, probably can’t fold river.

Hand 7 - Villain is same as in hand 3, this hand occured first. One of us is a bad player because this is a terrible river call versus my range, but I’m wondering if that’s because villain is a payoff wizard or because I’m not firing multiple barrels enough on this type of board. I will post this hand on the forum for analysis.

Also I have been contacted by a major training site asking if I would be interested in producing videos. I’ve always said I wouldn’t produce videos but I never expected to be approached by one of the big three so am currently considering it. I have asked a few respected players opinions and will ask a few more over the weekend. I am really unsure whether to go forward with this or not and it’s one of the things in the back of my mind at the moment. I would be grateful for any advice people could offer, there is a thread on the forum.

Away from poker I am having problems at work at the moment. As the situation is ongoing I can’t give any details but it’s a serious issue and is an annoyance I could do without. I also haven’t done much studying for my exams in the last couple of weeks so will need to really crack on with this in the next couple of weeks.

To finish on a positive note, Pompey got their first win of the season and I won £50 betting on Wolves not to beat them. Hopefully my next blog will be more positive!

VPP Progress: 388,113
ACCA Progress: 1/2 book done

Not a good weekend for poker, only managed 11k hands and am not playing my best at the moment. I got off to a flyer at the start of the month but since then my play has deteriorated and my progress has been really scrappy, I’ve been winning but not at the level I’m capable of. I want to play another 11k hands this month so hopefully I can work out what I’m doing wrong and start playing my best again. I also hope I don’t have any more hands like this lol.

I’m beginning to think this challenge is going to be harder than I first thought and have started to fall behind the required pace. I was hoping to get 10k hands in today to catch up but I started playing badly at the end of my first session and afterwards was so exhausted I just couldn’t play any more. I went out for an hour-long walk in the sun and felt much better so got another hour of poker in before dinner. After dinner I decided to take it easy and listen to a podcast while drifting in and out of conciousness. Although I only managed half the hands I was aiming for I think it was the correct decision to take it easy and recharge a bit.

As well as getting back on track with my game I also need to improve my mentality at the tables. I’m guessing it’s due to tiredness but recently I’ve started saying stupid little things in chat like “zzzz run better” after someone wins with a flush draw versus top two pair, or “lol” or “you’re good” after someone makes a bad play. Even though I’m not saying anything abusive it’s still a bit childish and it’s counter-productive to say anything so hopefully I can cut it out.

Anyway that’s enough of the self-flagellation. Thanks to the improvements in my game and the extra volume I’ve been putting in I’ve risen to second in the PTR leaderboard for Stars $200NL this year. Of course some of these players have moved up and poker isn’t that type of competition but it’s still nice to be up there. Also someone asked for top five regs in the SSNL thread on 2+2 and I got a couple of mentions here and here. Again being seen as the “best” is not the most important thing but it’s nice to have the respect of your peers.

In other poker news Ultimate Bet is again the hot topic as Joe Sebok announces his decision to join them. Thread can be found here, basically Joe seems to think by signing up he can help clear up the remainder of the cheating scandal. As it’s been over a year now it seems clear AP/UB have no interest in bringing about a fair and proper conclusion to this and Joe is either deluded or has sold his reputation for money. It will be interesting to see if he walks when UB’s promises turn to dust.

I haven’t played much poker recently. I need to be playing about 30k hands/week but have only managed 14k this week so will have to work a bit harder in the coming weeks. I only played once during the week because work has been tough, constantly busy and worked without a break most days and I don’t like playing poker tired. It seems a bit silly because there is zero benefit to working that hard at my job and it cost me the opportunity to play poker in the evenings, but at least things will be back to normal this week.

I’m doing ok in my goals to reach 600k VPP and pass my exams in December, I’ve done about 375k VPP’s and have read half an exam book. Recently I revised some techniques to improve memory and I’ve found them very useful in remembering exam stuff. The main technique I’m using is to create vivid images of lists and diagrams and I’m amazed at how easy I’m finding it to remember things doing this. For example Porter’s Diamond is four reasons why a nation might have an advantage in a particular industry (e.g Germany and cars, Japan and electronics). The four points Porter mentions are factor conditions, demand for goods, support industries and rivalry. I remember these by picturing a map of Britain and putting a different point in each region - for example I remember factor conditions by picturing big smoky factories up in the grim north. I can even remember that Porter’s first name is Michael because I have a picture of the annoying character from Lost in my head (Waaaaaaaaaalt). It sounds a bit silly but I think it’s pretty cool and seems very effective.

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Related to the above I’m thinking of offering up a little prop bet on whether I can achieve these goals. Here are the basics:

- The bet is whether I can make 600k VPP in 2009 and pass my final three ACCA exams in December (results in mid-February). As stated above this would require me to achieve 225k VPP’s in the next three and a bit months. Regarding the exams I believe they are considered degree-level of difficulty and I have taken two of them previously.

- Odds would be evens. I’m probably an underdog to achieve these goals but it’s only a friendly wager so just going to keep it simple.

- Minimum bet $10, maximum bet $100 per person. In the event someone wants to bet a larger amount then they would have to contact me as I’d probably need better odds.

- In most cases I won’t be bothering with an escrow, the amounts involved are small and I’m confident most people on EMS are trustworthy. If for some reason I do require an escrow (e.g you have one post on EMS and want to bet $100) then I’ll contact you privately. I won’t be escrowing any money myself so if you’re not comfortable with that then don’t bet, however I’d like to think people would be confident I’m not going to freeroll anyone.

- As this is a friendly bet there won’t be strict rules, e.g there will be no proof that I’m the one actually playing hands. If any unforeseen circumstance comes up then I’ll try to make the fairest decision possible, for example if there is a significant change in circumstances (e.g serious illness) then I believe it would be fair to call the bet off. Or if Stars decide to run double VPP then the extra VPP’s will be ignored. If anyone did have a disagreement with a decision then I’d be prepared to discuss it but my decision would be final. Again, if you’re worried I might angleshoot you then don’t bet.

If I’ve missed anything crucial then please let me know. If anyone is interested in betting against then write in the blog discussion thread or send me a PM.

A couple of hours ago I had a tough decision to make. The day had not been great, I’d run bad playing a mix of $400NL and $200NL and had struggled to put in hands, being about $1.3k down in 3.7k hands. After a couple hours break and dinner I sat down to put in one more session for the day and as there weren’t any empty tables at $200NL I decided to play exclusively $400NL. I believe I should be capable of winning at this level but in my small sample this year I’ve only managed to break-even so I tend to quit earlier than at my usual level.

So after 500 hands I had lost another $1k and had to decide whether to play on or call it quits. As I still felt ok I decided to continue and set a stop loss of $3k (which would equal my worst day). Here is today’s graph if you are interested in the results. As you might have guessed I ran really well and got back to even for the day.

I’ve now thinking whether I should be playing more of these sessions or whether I should continue to pick off the low-hanging fruit at $200NL. When I started out my sole aim was to reach the next level as quickly as possible, and I believe I progressed through uNL and SSNL at a good pace. However once I got to $200NL this changed, I started making decent money and my aim became to maximise my win-rate and hourly rate. My hourly rate is extremely good over the last 272k hands (since the mid-June reboot of my game) so I’m now thinking about MSNL again. It’s not that I need to move up, but if I am capable of it then it’s a waste not to do it. I find mixing levels hasn’t worked recently so I’m going to dedicate a couple of sessions a week to playing $400NL+ only and see how it goes. Worst case scenario is that I break-even in these sessions but improve as a player.

Away from poker I went to see District 9 yesterday. In a way it’s a bit disappointing because with the basic plot it had the potential to be a true classic and it doesn’t quite reach that level. But it’s the best sci-fi film for a while (since Serenity?) and the weaponry is amazing and worth the admission price on it’s own, if you like sci-fi you should check it out.

I’m also reading 1984 at the moment and it’s just as good as I expected, an entertaining read and very thought-provoking.

The next week is going to be very busy at work so not sure how much poker I’m going to be able to fit in. I’ve played 48k hands so far and am hoping to play another 50-70k by the end of the month so hopefully I’ll still be able to put some volume in this week. Here is this week’s grind song… I dunno why but her music is very catchy and good for grinding to.

Now that’s what I’m talking about!

Obviously ran well but the important thing is I managed to put in a long session and played well. I was hoping to play a bit longer but I had KK < AA for 200BB and decided that was a good point to take a break. It was funny because a couple of times I was checking the action on previous streets and saw that I'd bet the previous street, yet I couldn't remember doing it. I also made some mistakes but nothing major so I'm pleased with my performance and obviously happy with the results.

Here are some hands:

Losing Hands

Most of these aren’t that interesting.

1 - Gay.

2 - I didn’t mind this at all, flatting 88 pre-flop there is not profitable and even on a good board like this one I still had tons of equity.

3 - Don’t think I can do anything.

4 - I’m undecided on the river bet but checking is probably better. I think I have the best hand a ton but a lot of his worse hands are going to be total air so I’m better off check/calling. It also avoids this stupid spot where I put way too much money in the pot and lose.

5 - But it was soooooooted.

6 - Just in case he has AK or some random crap I have to c/rai here.

Winning Hands

1 - Obviously villain can never have a hand here, plus his name was “I love bluff” so doubt I’m folding.

2 - In some ways the better players get, the worse they play. If he had the Ac I think it might be ok but without it this is just a spew.

3 - This guy is a reg called “im***sky”. I would explain his thought process but there isn’t one, he just clicks buttons.

4 - This isn’t a standard defence but villain has a huge 3-bet% from the BTN. On the flop I think raising and calling are both fine, I decided to just call and get it in on the turn.

5 - Get most of the money in ahead, easy game.

6 - At the time I thought villain had overcalled flop, I didn’t realise the guy in between had folded. When he raises river I put him solely on quads, but obviously I can’t fold. I don’t hate flop or turn for him but river is just a fold, I’m never folding a full house and if he thinks I have air enough he can just call, although maybe he was worried about losing to something like 55.

7 - ty.

8 - Villain’s 3-bet size is not good as we’re deeper but it’s possible he just didn’t realise. Because it’s so small I feel compelled to call and I think every street is standard.

And here was my favourite tune from the grind: link